[← All guides](https://inflationcalculator.app/learn) # Bitcoin's Historical Returns: What the Data Shows Price history, market cycles, and drawdowns from 2010 to 2026 By [Kyle](https://inflationcalculator.app/about) · Published May 10, 2026 · Updated October 10, 2026 Written with AI assistance and published by Kyle. [How these guides are made](https://inflationcalculator.app/about#how-this-site-is-made) Bitcoin ended 2010 at about $0.30 and closed near $84,035 on September 25, 2026. Over those 16 years that is a compound rate of about 119% a year: on average, the price multiplied by about 2.2 each year. The same record contains four falls of more than 75% from a peak, measured on daily exchange prices, and a fifth decline of more than 50% that began in October 2025. This guide walks through the cycles, the supply schedule behind them, and how the returns compare with stocks and gold, using year-end prices from this site's data unless a figure is labeled otherwise. ## The Market Cycles Each completed cycle has followed the same shape: a run to a new high, a decline of more than half, and a recovery to a new high one to two years after the low. Peak and trough figures below are daily exchange prices; the table further down uses year-end prices, which show smaller declines because few years end at a peak or a trough. 2010 to 2015: Bitcoin rose from about $0.30 to about $32 in June 2011, then fell more than 90% to about $2 by November. It recovered to more than $1,000 in late 2013 on early adoption and media attention. Mt. Gox, then the largest exchange, halted withdrawals and filed for bankruptcy in February 2014, and the price slid to below $200 by January 2015, a decline of about 85%. 2015 to 2018: The recovery ran into the 2017 boom in initial coin offerings. Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 in December 2017, then fell to about $3,200 by December 2018, a decline of about 84%, as regulators moved against token sales and speculative demand dried up. On year-end prices, 2018 was a 74% loss. 2019 to 2022: Pandemic-era stimulus and corporate buyers such as MicroStrategy and Tesla took the price to about $69,000 in November 2021, shortly after the first US Bitcoin futures ETF began trading. The Terra/Luna collapse in May 2022, the failure of the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, and the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange in November 2022 took it to about $15,500, a decline of about 77%. On year-end prices, 2022 was a 64% loss. 2023 to 2026: On January 10, 2024, the [SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023), which let retirement accounts and institutions hold Bitcoin through ordinary brokerage funds. The fourth halving followed in April 2024. Bitcoin set a [record of about $126,000 on October 6, 2025](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/06/xrp-doge-sol-see-profit-taking-but-bitcoin-s-new-lifetime-high-maybe-isn-t-the-top), closing near $125,000, then fell to [about $58,600 on June 30, 2026](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/30/bitcoin-s-quiet-usd59-000-usd60-000-range-is-starting-to-look-dangerous), a close-to-close decline of about 53%. On September 25, 2026 it closed near $84,035. ## Bitcoin Year-End Prices, 2012 to 2026 Each year's closing price, its change from the previous year-end, and how far it sat below the highest earlier year-end close. The 2026 row is the close on September 25, 2026, not a year-end. | YEAR | PRICE | CHANGE | BELOW PRIOR HIGH | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2012 | $13.45 | +192% | New high | | 2013 | $754 | +5,506% | New high | | 2014 | $320 | −58% | −58% | | 2015 | $430 | +34% | −43% | | 2016 | $963 | +124% | New high | | 2017 | $14,156 | +1,370% | New high | | 2018 | $3,742 | −74% | −74% | | 2019 | $7,195 | +92% | −49% | | 2020 | $28,990 | +303% | New high | | 2021 | $46,306 | +60% | New high | | 2022 | $16,547 | −64% | −64% | | 2023 | $42,265 | +155% | −9% | | 2024 | $93,429 | +121% | New high | | 2025 | $87,509 | −6% | −6% | | 2026 (to date) | $84,035 | −4% | −10% | ## Supply: The Halving Schedule Bitcoin's protocol caps total supply at 21 million coins. New coins are paid to miners for each block, and every 210,000 blocks, roughly four years, that reward is cut in half. It fell from 50 BTC to 25 in November 2012, to 12.5 in July 2016, to 6.25 in May 2020, and to 3.125 in April 2024. The 20 millionth bitcoin was mined in March 2026, at block 939,999, leaving less than 1 million to be issued. Because the reward keeps halving, the last fractions will not be created until around 2140. Supporters argue that a fixed supply meeting growing demand pushes the price up over time. That argument depends on demand continuing to grow, which is not guaranteed. Each halving also cuts miners' revenue per block, and as rewards approach zero, transaction fees will have to pay for the computing power that secures the network. Mining difficulty has so far adjusted to the price, and the main chain has not suffered a successful 51% attack, but whether fees alone can sustain that security is an open question among developers and researchers. ## Volatility In the completed calendar years from 2015 to 2025, Bitcoin's year-end price changed by between −74% and +1,370% in a single year. Over the same years the S&P 500 ranged from −19% to +29%. An investor who held Bitcoin through 2022 lost 64% of the position's value in that calendar year alone. The 119% compound rate describes someone who bought at the end of 2010 and held through every decline to 2026. Few did. Buyers who arrived near the December 2017 or November 2021 peaks waited two to three years to get back to even, and many sold during the declines, earning far less than the headline figure. ## Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets From year-end 2016 to September 25, 2026, Bitcoin rose about 8,626%, the S&P 500 about 246% on a price-return basis, and gold's annual average price about 266%. (This site measures gold by annual average prices rather than year-end prices; see the [gold vs. stocks guide](https://inflationcalculator.app/learn/gold-vs-stocks).) From year-end 2020 to year-end 2024, which includes the 2022 crash and the 2023–2024 recovery, Bitcoin rose about 222%, gold's average price about 35%, and the S&P 500 about 57%. Starting at the end of 2017, near a peak, Bitcoin still rose about 494% to 2026, against 190% for the S&P 500 and 264% for gold's average price. Holding it required sitting through a 74% loss in 2018, a 64% loss in 2022 (both year-end to year-end), and the decline of more than half that began in October 2025. ## What the Return Data Cannot Tell You Price history shows how Bitcoin's price changed over particular years. It does not show whether the things that drove those changes, including early adoption, the supply schedule, and the arrival of ETFs and institutional buyers, will keep working or are already reflected in the price. It also cannot set a position size. An asset that has lost more than 70% in a single year can only be held through such a year if the loss would not force a sale, which depends on the rest of a person's finances and time horizon. The SEC's [Investor.gov crypto assets page](https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/spotlight/crypto-assets) covers custody, fraud, and the regulatory status of crypto products. Compare Bitcoin's full price history against the S&P 500, gold, and other assets in the Investment Calculator. Select any starting year to see both the gains and the drawdowns in context. [Open the Investment Calculator](https://inflationcalculator.app/investment) ## Sources 1. [CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin historical data](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/) 2. [S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/) 3. [LBMA, Precious Metal Prices (LBMA Gold Price history)](https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices) 4. [SEC, Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (January 10, 2024)](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023) 5. [Bitcoin Wiki, Controlled supply](https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply) 6. [CoinDesk, Bitcoin sets a new lifetime high (October 6, 2025)](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/06/xrp-doge-sol-see-profit-taking-but-bitcoin-s-new-lifetime-high-maybe-isn-t-the-top) 7. [CoinDesk, Bitcoin holds near $60,000 (June 30, 2026)](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/30/bitcoin-s-quiet-usd59-000-usd60-000-range-is-starting-to-look-dangerous) 8. [Investor.gov (SEC), Crypto Assets](https://www.investor.gov/additional-resources/spotlight/crypto-assets) This guide is for general education and is not financial, tax, or investment advice. Past returns do not predict future results. Spot an error? [Tell us](https://inflationcalculator.app/contact) and we will correct it.