[← All guides](https://inflationcalculator.app/learn) # Gold vs. Stocks: What the Historical Data Shows Gold and the S&P 500 compared decade by decade, 1990 to 2026 By [Kyle](https://inflationcalculator.app/about) · Published May 10, 2026 · Updated October 10, 2026 Written with AI assistance and published by Kyle. [How these guides are made](https://inflationcalculator.app/about#how-this-site-is-made) Since 1990 the lead between gold and US stocks has changed hands every decade. The S&P 500 gained 345% in the 1990s while gold lost 27%. In the 2000s gold rose 248% while the index lost 24%. Stocks led again in the 2010s, and gold has led so far in the 2020s. Neither asset pays a fixed nominal amount the way a bond or savings account does, but they respond to different conditions, and those conditions have shifted from one decade to the next. ## How the Numbers Are Measured The two series on this site are not measured the same way. The S&P 500 figures are year-end closing prices, without dividends. The gold figures are annual averages of the daily LBMA Gold Price in dollars per troy ounce. A year-end close is one day's price; an annual average smooths the whole year and lags turning points. Gold's $1,572 average for 2011, for example, sits well below its September 2011 high of about $1,900, and its 2026 figure ($4,581) is the average of the months published so far this year, not the price on September 25, 2026. For the three completed decades, swapping in year-end gold prices would not change which asset came out ahead. Daily prices quoted in the text below are LBMA or spot prices, not the annual averages. ## The Long View: 1990 to 2026 From year-end 1990 to September 25, 2026, the S&P 500 rose from 330 to 7,743, about 9.2% a year in price alone. Gold's average price rose from $383 an ounce in 1990 to $4,581 in 2026, about 7.1% a year. Stocks finished ahead, and further ahead once dividends are counted. The full-period averages hide the swings. An investor who held only gold through the 1990s lost money for a decade; one who moved out of gold in 2000 missed its best ten years in the series. ## Decade Returns, Gold vs. the S&P 500 Total change and compound annual rate for each period, from the site's data. S&P 500 figures are price return from year-end to year-end; gold figures compare annual average prices. The last two rows end at the latest readings (September 25, 2026 for the S&P 500, the 2026 average to date for gold) and count 2026 as a full year. | PERIOD | S&P 500 | PER YEAR | GOLD | PER YEAR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1990s (1990–1999) | +345% | +18.0% | −27% | −3.5% | | 2000s (1999–2009) | −24% | −2.7% | +248% | +13.3% | | 2010s (2009–2019) | +190% | +11.2% | +43% | +3.7% | | 2020s to date (2019–2026) | +140% | +13.3% | +229% | +18.5% | | Whole period (1990–2026) | +2,245% | +9.2% | +1,096% | +7.1% | ## The 1990s: Stocks Lead From year-end 1990 to year-end 1999, the S&P 500 rose about 18% a year in price, on falling interest rates, low inflation, and the late-decade technology boom. $10,000 invested at the end of 1990 grew to about $44,500 by the end of 1999. Gold's average price fell from $383 in 1990 to $279 in 1999, a nominal loss of 27% and a loss of about 43% after inflation. Central banks were net sellers. The price touched a 20-year low near $253 in mid-1999, after the Bank of England announced it would sell more than half of the UK's reserves, and recovered only when European central banks agreed that September to cap their sales. ## The 2000s: Gold Leads The Nasdaq Composite fell about 78% from its March 2000 peak to its October 2002 low, and the 2008 financial crisis brought a second bear market. From year-end 1999 to year-end 2009 the S&P 500 fell from 1,469 to 1,115, a nominal loss of 24% and about 41% after inflation. Gold's average price rose from $279 in 1999 to $972 in 2009, a gain of 248%, and reached $1,225 in 2010. $10,000 in gold at the 1999 average was worth about $34,800 at the 2009 average. The dollar weakened for most of the decade, real interest rates fell, and the first gold exchange-traded funds, including SPDR Gold Shares in 2004, made the metal easy to buy in a brokerage account. In 2008, the S&P 500's worst year in this data (−38%), gold's average price rose 25%. ## The 2010s: Stocks Lead The bull market that began in March 2009 ran until February 2020, the longest on record, supported by near-zero interest rates, share buybacks, and the growth of the largest technology companies. From year-end 2009 to year-end 2019, the S&P 500 rose 190% on price alone. Gold peaked near $1,900 in September 2011 and fell to about $1,050 in December 2015 as real yields rose and the dollar strengthened. It ended 2019 near $1,520. Measured by annual averages, gold gained 43% from 2009 to 2019, about 3.7% a year. ## The 2020s So Far The S&P 500 fell about 34% in five weeks in early 2020, then more than doubled from its March 2020 low to its January 2022 high. It fell 19% in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised rates, and has since closed at new highs. Gold rose from about $1,520 at the start of 2020 to a record above $2,000 in August 2020, then traded mostly between $1,600 and $2,000 through 2022 and 2023. The usual pattern of gold falling when real yields rise broke down in this period: the 10-year TIPS yield climbed from about −1% at the start of 2022 to about 2.5% in October 2023, yet gold held its ground. Central banks and other official buyers purchased more than 1,000 tonnes in each of 2022, 2023, and 2024, according to the World Gold Council, roughly double their pace of the previous decade. Spot gold first traded above $3,000 an ounce in March 2025, above $4,000 in October 2025, and above $5,000 on [January 26, 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/gold-tops-5000-why-the-metal-keeps-pushing-higher-and-higher.html), peaking near $5,600 three days later before a sharp one-day drop on January 30. The 2026 average to date is $4,581. From 2019 to 2026, gold's average price rose 229% and the S&P 500 rose 140%. ## What Drives Each Asset Gold pays no income, so its main competitor is the real return on safe bonds. When inflation-adjusted Treasury yields are low or negative, holding gold costs little; when they rise, the cost of holding it goes up. A weaker dollar, financial stress, and official buying push the price up. Central-bank demand has been the largest new factor of the 2020s. Stocks are claims on corporate earnings. They do best when profits grow and interest rates are low or falling, and worst in recessions and financial crises. The 1990s and 2010s had long expansions; the 2000s had two recessions and a banking crisis. ## Holding Both Because the two assets respond to different conditions, they have often moved apart in bad years for stocks, though not every time. In 2008 the S&P 500 fell 38% while gold's average rose 25%. In 2022 the index fell 19% and gold's average was close to flat (+0.2%). In 2001, when the S&P 500 fell 13%, gold's average also fell, by 3%. Over the full period, stocks compounded faster in two of the three completed decades. The data does not say which asset will lead in the next decade. It shows that each has gone ten years behind the other, and that a portfolio holding only one would have lived through those stretches in full. Investors who want gold without storing metal can use funds backed by physical bullion, such as [SPDR Gold Shares](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/), alongside a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. Run any custom comparison in the Investment Calculator. Select gold and the S&P 500, choose your starting year, and see how each would have performed for your specific time horizon. [Open the Investment Calculator](https://inflationcalculator.app/investment) ## Sources 1. [LBMA, Precious Metal Prices (LBMA Gold Price history)](https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices) 2. [World Gold Council, Gold prices](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices) 3. [S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/) 4. [US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U)](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) 5. [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (DFII10)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10) 6. [World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2024](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2024) 7. [World Gold Council, Gold reserves by country](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country) 8. [CNBC, "Gold tops $5,000" (January 26, 2026)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/gold-tops-5000-why-the-metal-keeps-pushing-higher-and-higher.html) 9. [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/) This guide is for general education and is not financial, tax, or investment advice. 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